Job Market Paper
From bricklayers to waiters: Reallocation in a deep recession
This paper explores how the local sectoral composition influences workers' adjustment
to a large economic shock. I exploit the massive burst in the Spanish construction sector
during the Great Recession, using detailed longitudinal administrative data. The identification
strategy relies on regional variations in employment contraction for the construction sector,
across Spanish provinces. The construction workers in heavily exposed provinces suffered a
significant decline in total earnings between 2007 and 2012, consistent with the workers
experiencing long periods of unemployment rather than wage cuts. I find evidence that this
short-term labor market adjustment was intersectoral rather than interregional, even under
asymmetric exposure. In order to understand the role of sectoral composition in an individual
worker's response to the shock, I construct a reallocation index based on worker
characteristics and local employment size within the sector. This index captures the degree
to which workers from the construction sector can reallocate into other sectors. Then, I examine
how sectoral composition contributes to ameliorating the shock's impact. I provide evidence
that workers' likelihood of changing sectors depends on having better outside opportunities
in other sectors, which varies across provinces and worker's characteristics. Individuals
with more evenly distributed characteristics across sectors were less affected by the shock
because they were more likely to change sectors. This implies that workers are less likely
to adapt to shocks when a region has a high level of sectoral concentration.
Work in progress
Quasi-random matches: Evidence from dual labor markets
Available upon request(joint with María Alexandra Castellanos and Jan Stuhler)
A fast-growing literature studies how sorting into particular jobs, firms, or locations affects workers. The key challenge when studying such questions is the non-random sorting of workers into jobs. We propose a novel identification strategy that exploits the timing of worker-firm matching. We isolate quasi-random variation in matches by interacting high-frequency information on the duration of contracts on the labor supply and transitory fluctuations in job creation on the labor demand side. We apply this method to address a central question in dual labor markets: how do different contract types -- fixed-term or open-ended contracts -- affect workers' careers? Using Spanish Social Security records, we track workers since labor market entry and compute their cumulative experience in both contract types. We find that transitory variation in the opening of permanent contracts is highly predictive of individual promotion probabilities, and has long-lasting effects on earnings, employment, and the accumulation of experience in permanent positions.
Internal migration and job instability
This paper explores the relationship between
job instability and workers' internal migration. In many Eastern
European countries, low promotion rates from temporary to permanent
positions affect workers' job security, a concern that is magnified
for young workers. Due to the uncertainty of migration benefits,
which heavily depend on promotions, they may be discouraged from
migrating. By using Spanish provinces as a laboratory, this paper
examines how job uncertainty affects internal migration within the
country. Using detailed administrative longitudinal data, I can observe
all worker movements each month. As a result, I can study both short-
and long-term migration movements, which provides new evidence on the
relationship between job flexibility and migration. According to my
results, increasing job flexibility increases short-term immigration
while deterring workers from staying longer. One percentage point higher
share of fixed-term contracts implies a seven percentage point lower
inflow into the province. Finally, by exploring individual-level data,
I show job security is an important determinant of a worker's internal
mobility.
Trends in inequality: A national and disaggregated earnings inequality study for Spain, 1995-2016
This article studies the evolution of Spain’s wage inequality between 1995 and
2017, emphasizing differences in trends at cohorts, sectors, and regional levels
and using data of Spain’s Continues Sample of Working Histories (MCVL). This dataset allows studying how broad
changes in inequality are decomposed at a disaggregated level. The results suggest
that wage inequality in Spain is strongly countercyclical. After the Great
Recession, the earnings distribution became even more unequal, this is appreciated
over all the autonomous communities, especially Andalusia, where the
construction sector was relatively more important, in opposition the North of
Spain has a higher percentage of the highly educated workers, and less dependent
on the construction sector before the crisis. Possible explanations for the documented
evolution in earnings inequality are the evolution of the unemployment
rate and the development of the college wage premium.